With 2020 is being part of the past, it is time to make a recall of the technological innovations that were trending in 2020 and will set the course for the immediate future.
The first bars of 2020 were already ringing, and while we still doubt our excess of optimism when formulating the resolutions for the new year, we realize the amount of technological innovations that are expected for 2021
If 2020 has been an interesting year due to the arrival of numerous technologies and the risky commitment of manufacturers to apply them. Almost science fiction projects come to mind, such as folding smartphones , the possibility of making your purchases on Amazon just by asking a smart speaker or the possibility of crossing all of Europe with an electric vehicle.
2021 will mean the definitive consolidation of many of the technologies that were already emerging in 2020 in such popular fields as telephony, artificial intelligence, entertainment or the electric car.
New year, new technology: all the technological innovations that will arrive this year
- 5G networks, in 2021 it will finally be a reality for everyone
- Folding mobiles finally arrive
- In 2021, OLED will be king
- New generation of video game consoles
- Streaming games: Google Stadia is just the first stone
- Artificial intelligence and IoT: going from Cloud Computing to Edge Computing
- Transition to the electric car: 2021 will be a point of no return in its deployment
- 5G networks, in 2021 it will finally be a reality for everyone
After more than five years of "imminent" arrival of 5G , 2021 will be the year in which the widespread deployment of 5G networks in the world will definitely begin .
Although it is true that during 2020 Vodafone began the deployment of 5G networks in very limited areas around major cities , it will not be until 2021 when the government begins the migration of the so-called Second Digital Dividend.
This process involves the liberation of the 700 MHz frequency band that DTT television occupies until now, in order to start the auction of licenses among the operators that request it and start broadcasting 5G networks.
5G connection
This will mean that, by the middle or end of 2021, 5G networks will play an important role in the constant war on operators' rates, which will spread to the sales of mobile phones that already have support for this type of networks. 5G.
In 2020 we could already see some examples of mobiles with support for 5G networks , some of which, like the Huawei Mate 20X 5G or the LG V50 ThinQ 5G, we had the opportunity to test in first person.
Huawei Mate 20X 5G and Palm Phone Unlocked
These5G is here, but at the moment there are only a few devices on the market that are compatible with this technology. If you are looking for a mobile with 5G, we will tell you which are the models that you can buy today in stores. Take note.
Until now, 5G connectivity had been reserved for the top ranges of each brand, but in 2021, with a rebound in demand for this type of mobile, manufacturers will bet on including support for 5G networks in the range models medium , and it is not ruled out that towards the end of the year or early 2022 this technology may reach the lowest ranges.
Regardless of the direct impact on telephony that the arrival of 5G networks will have, this technology will represent a true revolution at all levels. Something that many experts have agreed to equate to the invention of the steam engine or electricity .
Despite having been waiting for the arrival of 5G networks for years, until the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021 the first real deployments of 5G will not be seen in industrial areas or large infrastructures such as smart cities, automation of industrial processes, etc.
Folding mobiles finally arrive
Samsung Galaxy Fold
In 2020 the first folding smartphones were shown as the revolution that would change the concept of mobile phones and the way it is used.
Although time and failed launches proved that it is a technology that still needs to be polished, we already have the first smartphone with a folding screen officially on the market and several projects are about to hit the market.
Samsung, with its Galaxy Fold, has been the one who has played the most in its adventure of mobile phones with folding screens and, in fact, has managed to overcome the problems that arose with its screen by replenishing itself in time to reach the market as the first mobile with a screen. folding for sale in 2020 and, for 2021, it is already preparing its second version of this model with some added improvements.
Huawei Mate X
Huawei was another of the manufacturers that opted for this technology with its Huawei Mate X , which finally did not go on sale in Europe during 2020 and is expected to do so during 2021 .
Other manufacturers such as Motorola or Xiaomi have also shown interest in this type of smartphone. While Xiaomi carries its project almost in secret and only a folding book-type smartphone has been glimpsed, in the style of those presented by Samsung and Huawei, Motorola is committed to a more innovative format with a retro touch that brings us back to mobile phones shell type for the Motorola Razr 2021 that we were able to test during its presentation .
Motorola Razr 2021 opinion
Although it is true that 2021 will be a year in which manufacturers will present interesting projects in the field of folding smartphones, it is more than likely that none of these proposals will become best-selling mobile phones due to the high price involved in developing a new technology as complex as this.
However, controlling the manufacturing process and implementation of these flexible screens will open the door to other uses in the future, and will contribute to that, perhaps in 2021 or 2022, we all carry a smartphone with a folding screen in our pocket .
In 2021, OLED will be king
If we talk about smartphones and devices with flexible screens, we cannot stop talking about the technology that makes this engineering miracle possible: OLED.
With an LCD technology showing clear signs of exhaustion, OLED is shown as the screen technology capable of offering an answer to all the challenges of the future, at least until other technologies such as microLED are finished being developed .
OLED technology faces 2021 at its sweetest moment in aspects as important as the cost of production or the improvement in its performance.
We only have to look at how, in the field of televisions, OLED screens have taken over the high ranges of manufacturers while maintaining the price level of the LED LCD screens they replaced.
This is a clear indication of the impact that the optimization of the manufacturing processes of OLED panels and the increase in demand have on the final price of the product, making it much more affordable. We have also seen this trend in smartphones, since more and more models are opting for OLED screens instead of using LCD.
Philips OLED + 934, analysis and opinion
This increase in the use of OLED is also due to the improvement in its performance. Returning to the field of televisions, the first models of 8K OLED televisions are already beginning to reach the market and their development has contributed to the improvement in the quality and reliability of the screens, improving performance and brightness.
The possibility of integrating a fingerprint sensor under the screen, the low power consumption or its flexibility are some of the factors that have made the telephony industry fall at the feet of OLED technology. A trend that will reach its peak in 2021 where this technology is expected to sweep through most mid- and high-end devices.
The arrival of OLED screens in 2021 is not only limited to televisions or smartphones. Monitors and laptops will be the other great beneficiaries of OLED technology and we will see how laptops with several integrated screens multiply , such as the Asus ZenBook Pro Duo or the HP Omen X 2S , which take advantage of the low consumption of this type of screens and its color reliability to provide an expanded workspace.
New generation of video game consoles
In 2013 and with perfect synchrony, the two main video game platforms were renewed, with PlayStation 4 by Sony and Xbox One by Microsoft.
Seven years later, both platforms coincide almost millimetrically in the presentation dates of the new generation of their consoles. This puts an end to one of the longest-lived generations, no matter how much some may have been cut short.
Christmas 2020 seems to be the objective of both platforms, so it is expected that both Microsoft and Sony will present their consoles between the third and fourth quarters of the year, well in advance to ensure their arrival on the market before the Christmas campaign.
The execution of games in 8K resolutions and a general improvement in the performance of its hardware seem to be the arguments for its renewal, something to which they have been forced due to the pressing pressure of the rebound in which the PC is experiencing as a gaming platform.
Luckily for the current owners of one of these consoles, both manufacturers have expressed their willingness to backward compatibility, so it is expected that the games users have been buying over the years on the new platform can be used.
Sagas as emblematic as BioShock, Spider-Man or HALO Infinite have already confirmed their support for the new generation of consoles , so it is expected that the market premiere of the new generation of consoles will be accompanied by an important library of new titles under the arm.
Streaming games: Google Stadia is just the first stone
Google Stadia analysis
The idea of being able to play the same games on different devices is a concept that, for some years now, the main companies in the sector have been flirting with. 2020 will be the litmus test to see if streaming gaming platforms are consolidated or are nothing more than a fiasco.
In some way, that has been the germ of initiatives such as Xbox Game Pass or PlayStation Now , although in the end they have become something like a repository in which to buy and store games in the cloud to install them whenever you want.
Stadia
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However, streaming gaming platforms propose another point of view regarding games as they unlink from the device. There is no need for a console or computer as the game actually runs on a cloud server and not on the device.
Advances in fiber optic networks and cloud computing and content streaming techniques have made 2021 the key year to determine the viability of projects such as Google Stadia or Start, the result of the collaboration of Nvidia and Tencent that will arrive throughout 2021.
The first Google Stadi test units arrived at the end of 2019 and we were able to test the gaming experience. This helped us to affirm our opinion that streaming gaming platforms still have a lot of work to do and that 2021 will be key to seeing important movements in this technology that could change the landscape of the gaming industry forever .
Artificial intelligence and IoT: going from Cloud Computing to Edge Computing
Amazon Echo Show 5
The AI no longer seems a concept of science fiction movies as we have become accustomed to interact with it in various fields.
However, the development and evolution of these artificial intelligence agents has marked a clear trend of "lowering" artificial intelligence from servers in the cloud to the devices that use it, moving from " Cloud Computing " to " Edge Computing". ”.
Google was ahead of this trend with its small portable Nest Mini speaker , integrating a small processor that helps it drive artificial intelligence processes locally. That is, without having to send each operation to an external server to make a decision, so that artificial intelligence agents, in this case a voice assistant, no longer depend on a constant Internet connection to do their work. , being able to do some of these tasks locally.
This concept has been applied in the field of smartphones for a couple of years, integrating neural processing units (NPU for the acronym of Neural Processor Unit ) in charge of managing all the information related to artificial intelligence processes.
Processor Artificial Intelligence NPU
During 2021, with the explosion of connectivity that the arrival of 5G networks will mean , the Internet of Things devices located inside the home are expected to multiply at a frantic rate.
However, despite the improvement in connectivity, many of these devices will optimize their performance by processing the responses of voice assistants, visual recognition (motion detection, facial recognition, etc.) on the same device, ceasing to depend on of the availability of a network to function.
In parallel, the connected home ecosystem will finally be regulated under the same standard as companies such as Apple, Google, Amazon and other companies that are part of the Zigbee Alliance that is responsible for this IoT connection protocol, have joined to establish a common “language” for IoT devices that will arrive in late 2021.
This new protocol will be based on IP connectivity and will offer greater security guarantees for all home devices . In this way, connectivity between the different devices of the connected home will be improved, simplifying the integration of new devices to the scenarios already created.
Transition to the electric car: 2021 will be a point of no return in its deployment
The automotive industry seems to have understood that the future of the sector lies in the electric car . Throughout 2020, the main manufacturers have given ample evidence of their change of model towards the electrification of the automobile fleet .
Beyond the challenges posed by the change in a production model that has been in place for more than 100 years, the automotive industry faces a serious problem that must be resolved during 2021: the charging infrastructures for these electric vehicles.
It is of little use that the main brands have announced more than a dozen new models of 100% electric vehicles , such as the Volkswagen IDs , the new Honda E or the Mercedes proposals with their EQA , if then the drivers of these vehicles have an insufficient number of charging points or what exists does not cover reasonable needs in terms of charging times.
The solution not only comes from the restructuring of the automobile industry, but must also be accompanied by a change in the fuel industry . Companies such as Repsol have already announced some conversion plans towards the electric model that will begin to take shape in 2021 and join the strategies of other companies such as Shell .
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So this article is the answer to the following FAQs:
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2021 ka future
Technical progress - curse or blessing?
Technology sometimes evolves so quickly that it seems we have no control over its development. Their progress does not follow a technical, but above all a social logic. What seems safe today may already be obsolete tomorrow.
Will technology soon become too much for us?
Will technology soon become too much for us? License: cc by-sa / 2.0 / de (CC, Day 2: Technology by Nick Harris Nick Harris )
New technology is constantly penetrating our everyday lives: while inventions such as the railroad, the car and even the telephone took decades to establish themselves across the board and to become a natural part of work and private life, the computer and the Internet made it to a large extent shorter time. The first smartphone for the general public, the iPhone 2G, came onto the market just ten years ago. Today, smartphones have become an integral part of our everyday lives. Technical change is accelerating and with it the social change it has triggered.
Technical constraint?
Modern societies seem to be driven by technical innovations: You can hardly avoid them, but experience them as a kind of practical constraint that dominates us and dictates how we should use them. And companies are literally forced to keep up with the enormous pace of the technological arms race, which is constantly generating innovative products.
As correct as this perception appears at first glance, it is shortened if you take a closer look. New technology does not fall from the sky, but is made by people. In the past by heroic inventors like Thomas A. Edison or Werner von Siemens, today more by networks and organizations that give technology a specific character - for example the network of European aircraft manufacturers that have jointly developed and produced the Airbus since the 1960s. For every innovation there were and are always alternatives; and the decision as to which of these alternatives will ultimately prevail does not follow a technical, but a social logic.
Social construction of technology
A good example of this social logic is the history of the electric car: at the beginning of the 20th century, the electric motor was the most common form of driveuntil it was ousted by the internal combustion engine. Technically speaking, a lot spoke in favor of the electric motor. There was sufficient technical expertise and industrial know-how in the emerging electronics industry. In spite of this, an alliance of different interest groups finally pushed through the internal combustion engine. In addition to the wealthy townspeople who used the car for pleasure tours, farmers and country doctors in particular benefited from the mobile power source. In addition, there were regulatory measures that redefined the road as a “race track”. Where you previously strolled, the tram now raced - and unintentionally cleared the way for its worst competitor: the car.
These key decisions at the beginning of the 20th century laid out a socio-technical path that has gradually solidified. The great inertia of this path, however, was not a law of nature, but was repeatedly “socially constructed”, ie cemented by decisions. In the post-war years, for example, the German motorways were expanded at the expense of the railway, whose assets were "looted" for this. You could have set the course differently back then and, for example, expanded the rail network.
Today we are experiencing a renaissance of the electric car, which is seen as a component of a sustainable transport transition. Seemingly petrified paths can thus be broken if the problems they create lead to a decline in social acceptance and important groups of actors withdraw their support. The combustion engine is still superior to the electric motor in a number of ways; but we are no longer convinced that it will be able to solve the pressing future problems in the areas of the environment, energy or transport.
And this is how alternatives emerge that have the potential to replace the combustion engine - provided they can rely on a broad network of strong players. Which of these alternatives will prevail in the long term in the mobility and transport sector and which role the electric motor will play in this is still open. We are currently in the "fermentation phase", in which the old mobility regime is gradually being eroded and new options (such as car sharing) are being tested experimentally, from which a new mobility regime could develop in the longer term.
Technology assessment - a look into the future
As the example shows, the sociology of technology draws attention to the social processes of technology construction and thus contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between technology and society. It also shows design options. It makes sense to think intensively about the possible social consequences of technology in the early stages of technical innovations. This is where the technology assessment comes in: It develops future scenarios - with the participation of experts and laypersons - and tries to anticipate possible opportunities and risks of new technology (such as the recycling problem of batteries in electric cars). In this way, scenarios are explored that are based on a broad social consensus and contribute to
Due to negative experiences in the past (e.g. nuclear power), we have learned that it makes little sense to blindly trust the promises of the technology developers and keep naive and jump on the next technical trend. Modern societies have developed procedures to deal with technological developments carefully and not to overwhelm people. It is now standard practice to critically reflect on socio-technical transformation processes (as in the case of the digitalization of society) through publicly funded accompanying scientific research.
If we systematically apply these technology assessment procedures to electric cars, for example, but also to autonomous cars, we can ensure that future innovations will be a blessing and not a curse for humanity.
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Technological change and the consequences for the labor market
How does technological progress in the form of the increasing availability of computers, robots and other machines affect the world of work and, in particular, the demand for work? The international workshop “Technological Progress and the Labor Market” of the IAB was dedicated to this topic, which is prominent in both science and public discussion.
These questions have been discussed in research for some time, with David H. Autor, Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane making a pioneering contribution to this in 2003. A central component of their approach is that professions are made up of different areas of activity, so-called "tasks". These activities differ in the extent to which they follow routines.
Since machines are particularly well suited to replicating precisely specified work steps, activities that are characterized by a high degree of routine intensity, which has shaped the concept of "routine-biased technological change" (RBTC), can potentially be replaced. At the IAB, Katharina Dengler and Britta Matthes contributed to this field of research this year by updating the substitutability potential they had developed , published as the IAB short report 4/2018 (read the interview on this topic: “It's about knowledge based on experience and new digital skills to interlock ” with the two researchers here in the magazine).
In the public discussion about the consequences of technological change, the fear of widespread unemployment dominates if human work should increasingly be replaced by machines. However, the employment effects of technological progress are not clear ex ante, as the “labor-saving” effect is offset by a “job-creating” effect, which is fed by price reductions as a result of efficiency gains through the use of machines, as Uwe Blien and Oliver Ludewig 2016 in an IAB- Study set out.
Against this background, around 25 scientists from Germany and abroad presented and discussed their current research results on February 22 and 23, 2018 in Nuremberg. The event was organized by employees of the “Regional Labor Markets” research department and the IAB's regional research network.
Technological progress has no uniform effect on the activity profile of companies
With Matías Cortes , Assistant Professor at York University (Canada), and Prof. Mark Partridge from Ohio State University (USA), two well-known economists could be won as keynote speakers for the event, whose research is currently concerned with technological progress.
In his lecture “Delving into the Demand Side: Changes in Workplace Specialization and Job Polarization” on the results of his study of the same name published in 2016 together with Andrea Salvatori, Cortes dealt with the phenomenon of polarization in labor markets. This refers to the process observed in various countries that employment in occupations at the lower and upper ends of the wage distribution has increased, while occupations in the middle of the distribution have experienced a decline in employment.
In addition to the relocation of jobs abroad (offshoring), RBTC has also been named as a possible cause for this process, as occupations with a high proportion of routine-intensive activities are often found in the middle of the wage distribution. The focus of Cortes and Salvatori is the question of whether these changes have taken place in a comparable way in all companies.
Based on data from the UK, they show that the specialization of the job profile has increased in most establishments over the past 15 years. At the same time, however, companies differ in which activities they specialize in. Although the proportion of companies specializing in routine activities has decreased, the concentration on these activities within this group of companies has not decreased, which points to company heterogeneity in dealing with technological progress.
An increase in productivity can have regionally different effects
In his lecture “Are the most productive regions necessarily the most successful?”, Mark Partridge discussed how changes in productivity - for example caused by technological change - influence labor market results such as wages and employment.
The starting point of his study was the hypothesis that productivity effects on regional labor markets can be different from the national average. This could be the case if the negative effects, for example the loss of human work due to the increasing availability of machines, are concentrated locally.
The results of the regional economist for the USA show that an increase in productivity has had a small negative impact on the level of employment, while there have been positive wage effects.
The use of industrial robots did not affect the size of employment, but it did affect its composition
Nicole Wößner from the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) at Heinrich Heine University presented the results of her work together with Wolfgang Dauth (IAB and Julius Maximilians University of Würzburg), Sebastian Findeisen (University of Mannheim) and Jens Südekum ( DICE) wrote the paper “German Robots - The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers” . In it, the authors investigate the question of how technological progress in the past - in the form of more intensive use of industrial robots in Germany - has affected employment and wages.
One of the main findings of the study is that an increase in the number of industrial robots does not have a significant effect on the level of employment, but does have a significant effect on its composition. Although there is a decline in employment in the manufacturing sector, the number of people employed in the service sector is increasing to the same extent.
In addition, the results show that the decline in employment in the manufacturing sector is not due to layoffs, but to the lack of new hires. Although there is no evidence that the use of industrial robots has destroyed employment overall, it has been shown that there was a negative effect on the level of wages at the lower end of the wage distribution.
The data sources of the IAB
As was shown by various other contributions in the workshop, the question of the significance of technological progress is also relevant for individual employment trajectories. With the process data of the Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) prepared at the IAB , a data set is available that is suitable for addressing research questions of this kind. Information on the activities of employees can be obtained from the employment survey, which the Federal Institute for Vocational Training carried out first in cooperation with the IAB and later with the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. You can then be linked to the data of the IEB via the occupational code.
In collaboration between the IAB and the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), another data set was recently created, for which around 2,000 companies were specifically asked, among other things, to what extent they use new technologies. Since this data can also be combined with the individual data of the IEB, the effects of these technologies on the level of individual employment histories and on the level of the companies themselves can be examined.
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